“Coffee is Ours, but the Future is Uncertain”: Youth Aspirations, Institutional Trust, and Livelihood Decisions in Tanzania’s Coffee Heartland

Abstract

This study examines how youth in Mbinga District, Tanzania, navigate their engagement with coffee farming amid shifting institutional, economic, and climatic conditions. Coffee serves as both a livelihood foundation and a marker of Matengo identity, yet generational participation is declining as youth increasingly perceive it as high-risk and low-reward. Drawing on six focus group discussions and four key informant interviews across four villages, and guided by Aspirations Theory and the Sustainable Livelihoods Framework, we find that youth aspirations are institutionally mediated: while coffee is valued for its cultural and intergenerational significance, engagement is constrained by delayed payments, opaque cooperative governance, limited access to land and finance, and climate-related risks. These conditions narrow youth aspiration windows, prompting informal pre-harvest sales “magoma” and livelihood diversification. Youth express conditional optimism, noting that coffee could remain viable with improved institutional transparency, timely payments, gender-inclusive governance, and climate-resilient support. The study concludes that revitalizing youth engagement requires simultaneous structural and aspirational reforms—strengthening cooperative accountability, enhancing asset access, and integrating climate adaptation into livelihood strategies. These findings contribute to debates on intergenerational renewal, rural youth livelihoods, and institutional trust in African smallholder economies.