Beyond Access: Which Factors Shape Secondary School Students’ Academic Performance under Tanzania’s Fee-Free Education Policy?

Abstract

Tanzania’s Fee-Free Education Policy (FFEP) has dramatically expanded secondary school access since 2015, yet persistent concerns about educational quality persist. The rapid enrollment surge has strained school systems, but empirical evidence on how school management, teacher factors, resource availability, and household characteristics interact to influence student achievement remains limited. This study investigates the multidimensional determinants of academic performance in Tanzanian public secondary schools under FFEP. Employing a cross-sectional analytical design, data were collected from 239 randomly selected students (Forms 1-4) across 12 public secondary schools in Morogoro Municipality, Tanzania. Twenty-four educators (12 head teachers and 12 academic teachers) participated in semi-structured interviews. Quantitative data were analyzed using chi-square tests and binary logistic regression in STATA v18, while qualitative data underwent thematic analysis. Binary logistic regression revealed that consistent student attendance (OR=3.60, p<0.01), sustained parental involvement (OR=3.25, p<0.01), strong administrative accountability (OR=2.86, p<0.01), supportive school leadership (OR=2.77, p<0.01), adequate teacher availability (OR=2.59, p<0.01), access to supplementary materials (OR=2.27, p<0.05), quality infrastructure (OR=2.05, p<0.05), and appropriate teacher qualifications (OR=1.97, p<0.05) independently predicted satisfactory performance. The model explained 45% of performance variance (Pseudo R²=0.45). Qualitative findings elucidated how resource shortages, class sizes of 120-140 students, excessive workloads, and limited professional development constrain instructional effectiveness. Academic performance under FFEP depends on synergistic alignment of multiple system components rather than isolated factors. Student attendance and parental involvement emerged as strongest predictors, highlighting that access expansion alone cannot compensate for household-level engagement deficits. This study provides novel empirical evidence quantifying the relative strength of eight key predictors within an expanded-access policy context, advancing theoretical understanding of how misalignment between enrollment growth and resource provisioning creates quality constraints. FFEP has successfully expanded access, but sustainable quality improvements require integrated interventions addressing teacher support, infrastructure proportional to enrollment growth, parental engagement, and attendance promotion. Policy reforms should prioritize: (1) increased capitation grants with timely disbursement; (2) accelerated infrastructure development aligned with enrollment growth; (3) enhanced teacher motivation through incentives and professional development; (4) strengthened school-level administrative autonomy; and (5) inclusive parental engagement strategies accommodating economically constrained families.